Math 101, When 2+2 = 4? Or 10 Million!

If your job is counting the crude stockpile or making media headlines, you can insinuate whatever.  Investors however must get to the bottom of the reports, sort through the noise, and figure fundamentally what's likely ahead. OPEC is cutting 1.8 million in supply... compliance even … [Read more...]

Whip Saw & Threading Needles!

All things energy point to crude (Brent or WTI).  Guessing direction in the short term, let alone longer term, delivers hefty doses of humility. OPEC compliance has already reached and is anticipated to run past the 90th percentile (a record for the oligopoly). Crude runs higher!  Measured in … [Read more...]

Nat Gat Exports Rise… to infinity and beyond?

Where and how to position for the future of energy (Nat Gas)?    US Exports of Natural Gas rose to a record at year end 2016.  Supply has fallen below the 5 year maximum range. Traders have taken long positions but producers have not fully hedged current pricing.  Both are looking for … [Read more...]

Fixed Income is Dead… Long Live Fixed Income!

Fixed income and its kin; credit, debt, yield, bonds in general and so forth make me yawn. Who cares about making 2.5% on the risk free rate if the consideration is ‘How much money can I make?’. Is 2.5% going to change the way you live, will it make you rich, or will it pay tomorrow’s bills? My kids … [Read more...]

Witch’s Brew?

Overwhelmed by conflicting forecasts, views, and prognostications?  One sayeth rates will rise... to infinity and beyond.  Your current fixed income plagued by accelerating economic prowess of Trumpeconomics.  Back up the truck to your ‘sure thing stock’ or until a tweet sets the name back to planet … [Read more...]

Interest Rates. To Raise or Not…

As an equity & options investor, I often find myself looking at interest rates as a necessary evil... something I have to do, not because I want to.  Many colleagues get giggly over fix income.  But that disposition is dangerous as the rate (rise or not, how much, whatever, and wherever) has … [Read more...]

Tomorrow’s News Today!

A partner quipped with me that if we could sell tomorrow's paper today, we'd be rich! While that's not possible (the news part), getting ahead of the information is possible, and so too is getting rich.  That doesn't come easy, either you pay attention to those who are ahead or you get to digging … [Read more...]

Duration, Fixed Income vs S&P Yield

September was a long time ago, like yesterday!  I pounded the table flat!  Meaning I wrote here about Duration.  If Interest rates were to rise, those who were looking for safety (i.e. yield) were taking massive risk This week's bond rout, eclipsing the prior smashing in January 2009, has destroyed … [Read more...]

Energy Consumption RISES!

The energy complex has much to do with the economics of supply & demand.  The lessons from Econ 101 ring true; until you get Oil Ministers, Opec, EIA, Media, Short & Long 'paper' traders involved to skew what you'd expect to happen. Fundamentals eventually will win their place, so … [Read more...]

Comfort with the Herd?

If the investment is 'easy' or a 'no-brainer'... run! I have witnessed and listened to a myriad investors explain the virtues of buying the townhome (or whatever they found) for income and/or appreciation.  They continued rates are low, renters abundant, and their net after expenses (with the … [Read more...]