When ‘Free’ isn’t!

Distinguishing the difference between value and free is imperative; in life and investing!  Buffet says, "Price is what you pay, value is what you get... "  Careful when you overpay, careful when your lunch is free. Doug Kass, whom I read and respect had the following to write today: "When you … [Read more...]

Bulls or Bears in control?

I've long pounded the table (at least since energy fell through the floor and still resides in the basement) that energy prices can't [shouldn't] stay low too long.  Impatient bulls have paid a dear price, but regardless of your timing those willing to look out into the horizon should be rewarded if … [Read more...]

All Aboard… Get on the train whilst it’s still in the station!

Energy soon 'free' (cheap) has been short lived.  Long live cheap energy. Some anticipated shorter and longer time horizons.  The brave stepped in at the nadir, others looked for market confirmations... regardless of the metric you prefer, the future is clear.  Lower US Nat Gas prices than global … [Read more...]

Crude Storage (overflow) Overblown?

Much has been discussed about Cushing, OK storage capacity and crude's contango (today's pricing lower than distant futures).  Many suggest oil is going to new lows as a result as it spills over the top of storage tanks.  I think not.  Neither does Phil Flynn of the Price Group, an energy analyst … [Read more...]

Stunning EIA Revelation… not really.

You've just awaken, everything energy is cheap. Oil's storied plummet from triple digits to the $40's is a boon for Americans whose new-found wealth (savings at the pump) spurs the economy forward.  Furthermore the Energy Information Agency (EIA) continually reports of production growth... seemingly … [Read more...]

Benefits of Low Energy Prices?

When the US economy changed from mostly an energy consumption nation to the ranks of producing nations, the benefits of low energy prices flipped symmetrically.  Prognosticators who claimed a unilateral benefit for consumers simply missed the correlation.  Capex in energy is investment into the … [Read more...]

Celebrating the US Jobs report?

I'm glad more people found work but not willing to concede that 'all is clear'.  Losing jobs in higher wage sectors and adding them back in service (low) wage environments does not lead to future growth. Unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.5% as 178k people left the labor … [Read more...]

Caught Long Energy? You’ve got (good) company

I don't find comfort in misery... either should you.  Pummeling yourself along with crude's slide may only make a bad situation worse (aka capitulation at bottoms).  I'm not so much of a GE (Immelt) fan either, rather my point is that "value" doesn't turn to appreciation when it's convenient for you … [Read more...]

The Other Effect of Low Interest Rates

Indices ratchet ever higher spurring gains for many investors.  The story untold and less obvious is where danger lurks.  That's why higher indices have me concerned... yet we all could only aspire to be amongst those fortunate souls who have saved enough to be considered 'savers'.  Barron's this … [Read more...]

Century Aluminum Company: Promise Amidst Market Noise

Summary Materials have a good risk / reward. Analysts often misinterpret fundamentals. Lesser-followed equities often represent value. $2 Billion, mid cap industrial Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX) produces and sells aluminum in the domestic markets. It specializes in standard … [Read more...]