Overwhelmed by conflicting forecasts, views, and prognostications? One sayeth rates will rise… to infinity and beyond. Your current fixed income plagued by accelerating economic prowess of Trumpeconomics. Back up the truck to your ‘sure thing stock’ or until a tweet sets the name back to planet earth.
Another sayeth growth has slowed. 4th quarter GDP shows early signs of disappointment. Govt spending is crashing, banks’ lending is in reverse. Add in a scorching USD and a recession is surely on the horizon, lest we repeat Q1 ’16… the worst beginning of a new year in decades.
Candidly, I don’t know. Do the two extremes meet in the middle and we muddle through more slow and low growth? Maybe passive investing (indices) will fall from favor and fundamentalists will reign. I have no clue what technicians will say but surely they’ll opine too, particularly from the rear view mirror.
What I do know is that some will fall, others will rise. As the former occurs value expands and risk / reward improve. Opportunity befalls us!
The corollary holds true, as our holdings rise, value shrinks, risks rise. Our ego swells with the size of our portfolio, but this isn’t where the smart money will flow.
I’ll look for, find, and deliver insight on value. Worthwhile ideas are on the horizon. Stay tuned. In the interim, enjoy the holiday season and prosperous New Year!