Flatulence. Nat Gas. Misinformation.

My reflex could not be tamed. I’ve been silent for some time.  Nearly puked over the misinformation. The set up will catch many (uninformed) on the wrong side of the trade.

EIA releases this today:

Natural gas inventories end heating season above five-year average

Working natural gas in storage as of March 31, the traditional end of the heating season, totaled 2,051 billion cubic feet (Bcf), or almost 15% above the fiveyear average according to EIA’s

But this fails to discuss the WARMEST and most MILD winter in 80+ years (domestically and in Europe). Perhaps Al Gore is excited about the repair to his tainted credibility, skiers not so much (unless of course you live near the Sierra Nevada) where epic snow has competed for my time to write about what I’m trading. I promise to catch up.

Also omitted in y/o/y comparisons are the issues addressed here. Moreover exports took a small breather to Mexico, and that’s scheduled to come roaring back. Further the Trump administration has approved and is approving more Nat Gas terminals weekly.

This graph, while being used to discourage investors and producers alike, is really justification for the supply squeeze (and long thesis). Demand rises, uses rise, greater % of energy production from Nat Gas, more export capacity, more piplelinesrelegate historical averages useless, if used incorrectly. In fact, notice the overall drawdown in the most recent winterThat would be MORE than last year in spite of the mild temperatures.

Pick equities carefully (who will survive short term pain). I don’t trade the underlying commodity as there’s more opportunity in the right equity. And I recommend avoiding the ETF on the commodity too.