Whip Saw & Threading Needles!

All things energy point to crude (Brent or WTI).  Guessing direction in the short term, let alone longer term, delivers hefty doses of humility. OPEC compliance has already reached and is anticipated to run past the 90th percentile (a record for the oligopoly). Crude runs higher!  Measured in … [Read more...]

Fixed Income is Dead… Long Live Fixed Income!

Fixed income and its kin; credit, debt, yield, bonds in general and so forth make me yawn. Who cares about making 2.5% on the risk free rate if the consideration is ‘How much money can I make?’. Is 2.5% going to change the way you live, will it make you rich, or will it pay tomorrow’s bills? My kids … [Read more...]

Witch’s Brew?

Overwhelmed by conflicting forecasts, views, and prognostications?  One sayeth rates will rise... to infinity and beyond.  Your current fixed income plagued by accelerating economic prowess of Trumpeconomics.  Back up the truck to your ‘sure thing stock’ or until a tweet sets the name back to planet … [Read more...]

Interest Rates. To Raise or Not…

As an equity & options investor, I often find myself looking at interest rates as a necessary evil... something I have to do, not because I want to.  Many colleagues get giggly over fix income.  But that disposition is dangerous as the rate (rise or not, how much, whatever, and wherever) has … [Read more...]

Tomorrow’s News Today!

A partner quipped with me that if we could sell tomorrow's paper today, we'd be rich! While that's not possible (the news part), getting ahead of the information is possible, and so too is getting rich.  That doesn't come easy, either you pay attention to those who are ahead or you get to digging … [Read more...]

Duration, Fixed Income vs S&P Yield

September was a long time ago, like yesterday!  I pounded the table flat!  Meaning I wrote here about Duration.  If Interest rates were to rise, those who were looking for safety (i.e. yield) were taking massive risk This week's bond rout, eclipsing the prior smashing in January 2009, has destroyed … [Read more...]

Energy Consumption RISES!

The energy complex has much to do with the economics of supply & demand.  The lessons from Econ 101 ring true; until you get Oil Ministers, Opec, EIA, Media, Short & Long 'paper' traders involved to skew what you'd expect to happen. Fundamentals eventually will win their place, so … [Read more...]

Comfort with the Herd?

If the investment is 'easy' or a 'no-brainer'... run! I have witnessed and listened to a myriad investors explain the virtues of buying the townhome (or whatever they found) for income and/or appreciation.  They continued rates are low, renters abundant, and their net after expenses (with the … [Read more...]

DURATION. One Risk (of many) You May Not Be Aware Of Let Alone Prepared For

I've been pounding the table about unidentified risk.  Unwittingly, most just want to make it through their day... work, family, community.  But things as we have come to expect can easily and quickly change leaving us unduly exposed.  As Warren Buffet aptly said, "Only when the tide goes out do you … [Read more...]

Remember Low Gas Prices?

Gasoline demand in the U.S. hits record highs.  As of last week 9.480 million barrels a day!  Be forewarned, prices will rise at the pump as the US driving season approaches and record SUV sales.  Given current oil prices, crumbling exploration & production investment, solid global demand will … [Read more...]